CMHC Cuts Its 2026 Housing Forecast: The Edmonton Read

Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation downgraded its outlook for the housing market on July 22, 2026, and it is a notable reversal. In the mid-year update to its 2026 Housing Market Outlook, the national housing agency now expects home sales, prices, and construction to all fall this year, after its February forecast had called for sales and prices to rise. CMHC now sees national home sales dropping 2.8% to 457,200 in 2026, the national average price slipping 0.6% to $675,200, and housing starts falling 6.8% to 241,400 units. It blames a slower economy, high borrowing costs, softer population growth, and renewed Canada-U.S. trade uncertainty. For Edmonton, the read is more balanced than the gloomy national headline suggests: CMHC still describes Alberta's largest city as relatively resilient on affordability, even as its rental market loosens. Here is what the forecast says and what it means locally.

Information last verified on July 23, 2026. Forecasts and figures below are current as of that date and are CMHC projections, not guarantees.

What did CMHC change in its 2026 forecast?

The headline is the direction of the revision. Back in February, CMHC's base outlook for 2026 anticipated that both home sales and prices would climb over the year. The mid-year update, released July 22, reverses that: sales, prices, and new construction are now all forecast to decline in 2026 compared with 2025.

The specific national numbers CMHC published are:

CMHC attributes the softer picture to a cluster of headwinds: slow economic growth, high borrowing costs that continue to weigh on demand, slower population growth than in recent years, modest income growth, and renewed Canada-U.S. trade and tariff uncertainty that is affecting hiring and investment decisions. The agency expects activity to stay subdued through the rest of 2026, with only a modest improvement penciled in for 2027 and 2028.

It is worth putting the price figure in perspective. A 0.6% dip in the national average is a shallow decline, not a crash, and it follows several years of elevated prices. The starts number is the sharper move: CMHC attributes the 6.8% pullback in new construction to builders responding to softer demand, elevated inventories in some markets, and high construction costs.

How does this fit the recent data?

CMHC's downgrade lands on top of a run of softer national readings we have been tracking. Canada's June housing-starts numbers had already come in lower, and CREA's June national report showed a market that was firming in Alberta while staying soft in much of the country. A mid-year forecast that now expects full-year sales, prices, and starts to slip is consistent with that momentum rather than a break from it.

The rate backdrop matters here too. The Bank of Canada's high borrowing costs are one of the drivers CMHC names, and the central bank has held its policy rate steady at 2.25% through the summer, as we covered when the Bank of Canada held at 2.25%. Steady but still-elevated rates are exactly the kind of environment CMHC is describing when it talks about demand staying subdued.

Edmonton's own resale price trend has been running on its own track, firmer than the national average. The live snapshot below shows where local median sold prices have been heading in recent months.

What This Means for Edmonton

The national headline and the Edmonton reality are not the same story, and that gap is the most useful part of this report for local readers.

CMHC's forecast is a national aggregate. It blends expensive, rate-sensitive markets like Toronto and Vancouver with more affordable ones, and the big, pricey markets carry heavy weight in the average. Within that national picture, CMHC continues to describe Edmonton as relatively resilient, largely because affordability here gives buyers more room than in Canada's most stretched markets. In practice, a small projected dip in the national average price does not automatically translate into falling prices in Edmonton, where local sales and prices have been holding up better than the country as a whole.

On the rental side, CMHC's companion mid-year rental update points to a loosening Edmonton market, with the vacancy rate rising from 3.8% in 2025 as a wave of new apartment supply gives renters more choice. That easing is consistent with the softer asking rents we reported in Edmonton's June rent numbers. For renters, more vacancy generally means more negotiating room; for owners of rental property, it is a reminder that the supply surge is doing its job.

For buyers and sellers weighing the back half of 2026, the practical message is to treat CMHC's forecast as a national planning backdrop, not a local price prediction. A national average that dips slightly while borrowing costs stay elevated argues for patience and for running real numbers rather than reacting to a headline. Anyone considering a move can check what a home might be worth in Edmonton and compare it against current Edmonton listings, then take those figures to a mortgage broker or a local REALTOR® to model an actual payment. None of this is individual financial advice, and the right decision depends on each household's timeline, equity, and rate type.

Frequently Asked Questions

What did CMHC change in its 2026 housing forecast? In its mid-year update released July 22, 2026, CMHC downgraded its February outlook. It now expects national home sales to fall 2.8% to 457,200, the average price to dip 0.6% to $675,200, and housing starts to drop 6.8% to 241,400 units in 2026. In February it had projected sales and prices to rise, so this is a reversal in direction.

Why is CMHC more pessimistic now? CMHC points to a slower economy, high borrowing costs that continue to weigh on demand, slower population growth, modest income growth, and renewed Canada-U.S. trade and tariff uncertainty. It expects activity to stay subdued through the rest of 2026, with only a modest improvement in 2027 and 2028.

Does this mean Edmonton home prices are about to fall? Not necessarily. CMHC's numbers are national averages weighted heavily by expensive markets like Toronto and Vancouver. CMHC continues to describe Edmonton as relatively resilient on affordability, and local sales and prices have been holding up better than the national average. A small projected dip in the national average does not automatically translate into falling prices in Edmonton. CMHC's "relatively resilient" comment describes Edmonton's affordability position versus other major markets, and this mid-year update did not issue a specific Edmonton price projection.

What does the forecast say about the rental market? CMHC's mid-year rental update points to a loosening Edmonton rental market, with the vacancy rate rising from 3.8% in 2025 as new apartment supply comes online. That gives renters more choice and more room to negotiate, and it lines up with the softer asking rents reported for Edmonton in June 2026.

How should Edmonton buyers and sellers use this forecast? Treat it as a national planning backdrop rather than a local price prediction. With borrowing costs still elevated and the national average projected to dip only slightly, the sensible approach is to run your own numbers on a specific property and rate rather than react to the headline. A local REALTOR® or mortgage broker can help model an actual payment.

This article was researched and drafted with AI assistance, fact-checked against the primary sources listed below, and reviewed by the hômm editorial team before publication. Market data is live from the MLS®.